NBA playoffs betting Picks for Pacers-Knicks Wolves-Nuggets

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The second round of the playoffs is in full swing with a Monday night doubleheader. The New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of their series, while the Minnesota Timberwolves try to steal a second game on the road against the Denver Nuggets in the nightcap. In both games, the home team is favored by 5.5 points with similar money lines on ESPN BET. Let's take a closer look at both the games and the matchups to identify some angles of interest.

Knicks -5.5 vs. Pacers (-110): While the Pacers won two of three regular-season matchups against the Knicks, the caveat is they never faced the Knicks with OG Anunoby in the lineup. That is huge, because the pairing of Anunoby and Jalen Brunson has been almost unbeatable this season. The Knicks were 19-2 with a +12.8 PPG scoring margin in 21 regular-season games with Brunson and Anunoby playing together. Then, in the first round of the playoffs, they defeated a 76ers squad that was 31-8 with Joel Embiid this season, including 5-0 after he returned from an injury layoff. The Knicks are playing at an extremely high level, and I'm not sure the Pacers will come close to matching that level in Game 1.

Timberwolves +5.5 at Nuggets (-110): The Timberwolves took Game 1 on the road against the defending NBA champions, and I think many would expect them to be happy that they were able to steal home-court advantage. That is not at all the sense I get from Anthony Edwards and this Timberwolves team. It is a focused, edgy group that has been dialed to 10 through its so-far undefeated playoffs run. The Nuggets are elite at home and playing to get into the series, but I expect the Timberwolves to continue to match their level. In what looks like a toss-up game, I'll take the 5.5 points and go with the Timberwolves. According to BPI, the game projects to be extremely close, with the Nuggets favored by 0.6 points.

Josh Hart over 12.5 rebounds (-105): Hart is the best rebounding wing in the NBA this season and has been a monster on the glass in the playoffs with 12.3 RPG. The Pacers were 28th of 30 teams in team rebounds per game this season. Hart grabbed double-digit boards in all three regular-season matchups against the Pacers, including when playing next to another volume rebounder in Julius Randle. He has taken it to the next level in the playoffs, grabbing 13 or more boards in four of six games.

Michael Porter Jr. over 18.5 points (-105): Porter has been scorching from the field in the playoffs, particularly from 3-point land, but seems to somehow still be flying under the radar. In six playoff games, Porter has averaged 22.3 PPG on 53.9 FG% and 50.0 3P% (on 8.0 3PA). He has scored more than 18.5 points in all six games and has 20 or more in five straight, including Game 1 against the Timberwolves. With Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray drawing the lion's share of opposing defensive attention, I expect Porter to continue to knock down his open looks Monday.

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET 

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks East Semifinals - Game 1 7:30 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York

Records (Against the Spread) Pacers: 47-35 (44-36-2) Knicks: 50-32 (44-37-1)

Line: Knicks (-5.5) Total: 217.5 Money Line: Pacers (+180), Knicks (-215) BPI Projection: Knicks by 3.6, straight up 62%, 217.4 total points.

Injury Report: Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD - Back); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT - Shoulder) Knicks: Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT - Foot); Duane Washington Jr., (OUT - Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets West Semifinals - Game 2 10 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver

Records (Against the Spread) Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3) Nuggets: 57-25 (38-42-2)

Line: Nuggets (-5.5) Total: 206.5 Money Line: Timberwolves (+185), Nuggets (-225) BPI Projection: Nuggets by 0.6, straight up 52%, 210.7 total points.

Injury Report: Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles) Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - Calf); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee); Collin Gillespie, (OUT - Knee)